The Free Tool Banks Use to Predict RBA Rate Movements

By Will Kiln | Published March 2026 | Last Updated March 2026 *Interest rates and market data referenced in this article are current as at March 2026. Rates change frequently — contact us for the latest figures.* <h2>I Used to Refresh This Page Every Morning Before the Market Opened</h2> Back when I was working in banking — across stints at CBA, Westpac, Macquarie, and ING over more than a decade — there was one page that every treasury desk, every pricing team, and every mortgage strategist had bookmarked. It wasn't a Bloomberg terminal screen. It wasn't a proprietary model locked behind a six-figure subscription. It was a free, publicly available page on the ASX website. The ASX RBA Rate Tracker. Before every RBA board meeting, the pricing teams I worked alongside would pull up this tool and study the probability tables and the implied yield curve. It informed how we priced fixed rates, how we thought about variable rate margins, and frankly, how anxious we felt heading into a Tuesday afternoon decision. And here's the thing: this tool hasn't changed. It's still free. It's still live. And it's still the same data that the big banks are looking at right now as we head into the March 17 RBA decision — with the cash rate sitting at 3.85% following February's surprise hike. Today, I'm going to walk you through exactly what this tool shows, what every element on the page means, and how you can use it as one of the many inputs to understand what may happen next with interest rates. But first, a critical caveat. <h2>Nobody Knows What the RBA Will Do — Except the RBA</h2> Let me be very clear about something, because this is important and it's something that gets lost in the noise of media commentary and dinner party speculation. The ASX RBA Rate Tracker does not predict what the RBA will do. What it shows is what the market thinks will happen, based on how traders are pricing a specific financial instrument called the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures contract. These are real trades, made with real money, by institutional participants who have skin in the game. That makes it meaningful. But meaningful is not the same as certain. The RBA's Monetary Policy Board makes its decision based on a vast array of economic data, internal modelling, and judgement calls that no futures market can fully anticipate. I've seen meetings where the market priced a 90% probability of a hold and the RBA moved anyway. I've seen the reverse too. So treat this tool as what it is: one of the best publicly available gauges of market sentiment around cash rate expectations. Not a crystal ball. With that said, let's get into it. <h2>What Is the ASX RBA Rate Tracker?</h2> The RBA Rate Tracker is a free tool published on the ASX website that translates the pricing of 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures contracts into a percentage probability of the RBA changing the official cash rate at its next meeting. You can access it here: <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/futures-market/rba-rate-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ASX RBA Rate Tracker</a> The page has three key components, and I'll break each one down: <ol> <li>The RBA Rate Indicator table — showing the probability of a rate change at the next meeting</li> <li>The Implied Expectation of Change chart — showing probabilities for future meetings</li> <li>The Implied Yield Curve — showing where the market expects the cash rate to be over the coming months</li> </ol> <h2>Component 1: The RBA Rate Indicator Table</h2> This is the headline feature and it's the first thing you'll see. The table shows, for each recent trading day, the market-implied probability of the RBA either holding rates steady or changing them at the next board meeting. <h3>How to read it</h3> Each row represents a trading day. The columns show the probability assigned to each possible outcome — typically "No Change" alongside one or two alternative scenarios (such as a 25 basis point cut or hike). For example, you might see something like: <ul> <li>No Change: 72%</li> <li>+25bps: 28%</li> </ul> That tells you the futures market is pricing about a one-in-four chance of a rate increase at the next meeting. <h3>Why it changes day to day</h3> These probabilities shift every single trading day because the underlying futures contracts are being actively bought and sold. New economic data, global events, RBA speeches, inflation prints, employment numbers — anything that changes the market's view on what the RBA might do will move these probabilities. In the lead-up to a meeting, you'll often see the probabilities firm up as more information comes to hand. In quiet periods between meetings, the probabilities can swing more dramatically on individual data releases. <h3>What the banking teams actually did with this</h3> When I was on the banking side, the pricing teams would track these probabilities daily. If the market was pricing a 60%+ chance of a move, the fixed rate pricing models would start reflecting that. Product teams would begin preparing rate change communications. The communications and media teams would draft holding statements. It was never treated as gospel, but it was absolutely treated as the most efficient summary of where the market's head was at. <h2>Component 2: The Implied Expectation of Change Chart</h2> Below the rate indicator table, you'll find a chart (sometimes presented as a bar chart) that shows the market-implied probability of rate changes not just at the next meeting, but across multiple upcoming RBA meetings. <h3>How to read it</h3> Each bar or data point represents a future RBA meeting date. The chart shows the cumulative market expectation — for instance, the market might be pricing one 25bps hike at the March meeting and a second by May. This is where things get really useful for longer-term planning. If you're a borrower trying to decide between fixing your rate or staying variable, this chart gives you a sense of the market's expected trajectory for the cash rate over the next six to twelve months. <h3>The important nuance</h3> Remember: each data point further into the future carries more uncertainty. The market might have a strong view on next week's meeting, but its pricing for a meeting eight months away is inherently less reliable. A lot can change — and frequently does. <h2>Component 3: The Implied Yield Curve</h2> This is my personal favourite part of the page, and the one that most everyday borrowers overlook. The ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve is a line chart that plots the implied cash rate across future months, based on the settlement yields of each monthly futures contract. <h3>How to read it</h3> The x-axis shows future months. The y-axis shows the implied cash rate (in percentage terms). The line tells you where the market expects the overnight cash rate to sit in each of those months. If the line is flat, the market expects rates to stay where they are. If it slopes upward, the market is pricing in rate increases. If it slopes downward, rate cuts are expected. <h3>Why it matters for borrowers</h3> This curve is essentially the market's best guess at the future path of interest rates. When your bank prices a 2-year or 3-year fixed rate mortgage, they're looking at curves like this (along with swap rates and their own cost of funds) to determine what to charge you. If the implied yield curve is showing rates peaking and then declining, it might suggest that fixing for a shorter term could make sense — you'd come off a fixed rate as variable rates are potentially falling. Conversely, if the curve is rising and staying elevated, locking in today's rate might look attractive. This is not financial advice — it's one input among many. But it's the same input that the bank treasuries are using. <h2>How the Maths Actually Works</h2> For the technically curious, here's what's happening under the hood. The probability calculation takes into account how many days in a given month fall before the RBA meeting (where the cash rate is known) versus after (where it depends on the RBA's decision). The formula essentially works like this: The current futures yield for a given month represents a weighted average of the known cash rate (for the days before the meeting) and the expected cash rate (for the days after the meeting). By solving for the unknown — the post-meeting rate — you can extract the implied probability of a rate change. The ASX publishes the full methodology on their website for anyone who wants to work through the algebra. The key takeaway is that the probability isn't an opinion or a survey. It's derived directly from where people are putting their money — which tends to be a more honest signal than where people are putting their commentary. <h2>What the Tracker Is Showing Right Now</h2> As of early March 2026, we're heading into the March 17 RBA meeting with the cash rate at 3.85% after the Board's decision to raise rates in February — the first hike since late 2023. Most major bank economists expect the RBA to pause in March as it assesses the impact of February's move. However, several forecasters, including CBA's economics team, have flagged that another hike in May is a real possibility if inflation data doesn't improve. The ASX Rate Tracker will be updating daily in the lead-up to the March meeting. It's worth checking every few days to see how market sentiment is shifting as new economic data comes through. <h2>How to Use This as a Borrower</h2> Here's my practical advice on incorporating this tool into your thinking: If you have a variable rate mortgage, the Rate Tracker gives you an early warning system. If probabilities of a hike start climbing above 50%, you've got a few weeks to review your budget, stress-test your repayments, and consider whether fixing makes sense. If you're considering fixing your rate, the implied yield curve shows you what the market is pricing in for the future. If the curve suggests rates will be higher in 12 months, today's fixed rate might look like a good deal. If the curve is flat or declining, the urgency to fix is lower. If you're buying a property, understanding the rate trajectory helps you plan your borrowing capacity. A rising curve means you should stress-test at higher rates than today. A flat or declining curve suggests your current rate is a reasonable planning assumption — though always build in a buffer. If you're an investor, rate expectations affect everything from rental yields to property valuations. The implied yield curve is one of the best free tools for understanding how the market is pricing in monetary policy changes. <h2>Other Tools to Use Alongside the Rate Tracker</h2> The ASX Rate Tracker shouldn't be the only thing you look at. Here are some other free resources that will round out your picture: RBA Statements and Minutes (rba.gov.au) — The actual words from the Board are the single most important source. Read the statement after each meeting and the minutes two weeks later. ABS Inflation Data — The quarterly CPI and monthly indicator are what the RBA is watching most closely. If inflation is falling, cuts become more likely. If it's sticky or rising (as we've seen recently), hikes stay on the table. Employment Data — The monthly labour force survey from the ABS tells you how tight the job market is. A tight labour market means wage pressures, which means inflation pressures, which means the RBA stays hawkish. Bank Economist Forecasts — CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ all publish their rate forecasts. These are well-resourced teams with sophisticated models. They don't always agree with each other, which tells you something about how uncertain the outlook often is. Your Mortgage Broker — A good broker (like us at Cumulus Capital) translates all of this into what it means for your specific situation. Because ultimately, the cash rate is one thing — what your lender does with their pricing is another thing entirely. <h2>The Bottom Line</h2> The ASX RBA Rate Tracker is a genuinely powerful tool that gives you access to the same market-derived rate expectations that bank pricing teams use every day. It's free, it's updated daily, and once you know how to read it, it takes about 30 seconds to check. But it's a compass, not a GPS. It tells you which way the wind is blowing — it doesn't tell you exactly where you'll end up. Only the RBA knows that, and even they'll tell you it depends on the data. If you want help understanding what all of this means for your specific home loan, investment strategy, or refinancing decision, that's exactly what we do at Cumulus Capital. We take the macro picture and translate it into personalised, actionable advice. Bookmark the Rate Tracker. Check it before each RBA meeting. And if the numbers start moving in a direction that makes you nervous — or excited — reach out and let's talk. <a href="/contact" class="inline-flex items-center gap-2 border-2 border-secondary bg-secondary/10 px-6 py-3 font-semibold text-secondary transition-all hover:bg-secondary hover:text-primary">Get a Free Rate Review →</a> <hr class="my-12" /> This article provides general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. Interest rates are indicative and change frequently. Cumulus Capital Pty Ltd (ABN 16 695 377 229), Credit Representative Number 577081, is authorised under Australian Credit Licence Number 389328.

Need help with your lending?